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Analysis: Why did Eric Gagne have trouble going from Texas to Boston last year?

 

Gagne pitched in Texas 4/01/07 to 7/16/07. Boston 7/17/07+

Section 1:WHY he got worse in Boston

Section 2:HOW he got worse (not why)

Section 3: statistics just show that he got worse, not why

 

This section shows WHY he got worse

 

WHY he got worse in Boston

•         Release points: In Texas is release points were fairly deceptive. In Boston his CB delivery caused his arm to come outside about 9 inches, making it easier to pickup.

•         Consecutive pitches: In Texas he mixed up pitches more. For example after a CB he threw 48% FB in Texas but 57% in Boston – much more predictable.

•         Pitch selection by inning: In Texas he mixed up pitches in the 8th and 9th innings. In the 11th relied more on CB and less on change. In Boston the 8th inning was a predictable FB (62%). In the 9th inning the FB was still a predictable 50%.

•         Pitch velocities: In Texas his pitches had nice “bell curves” making hitters guess not only what was coming, but at what speed. In Boston his FB was not a “bell curve” showing inconsistencies. Interestingly he threw 95mph+ more in Boston but it was ineffective.

•         Pitch type and locations vs RHH: In Texas he almost always kept pitches away from RHH. In Boston he pitched inside and over the inside half of the plate more.

•         Pitch type and locations of swinging strikes vs RHH: Batters chased his Change more in Texas because it was effective down and away from RHH.

 

Release points:

•         In Texas is release points were fairly deceptive

•         In Boston his CB delivery caused his arm to come outside about 9 inches, making it easier to pickup.

 

Texas

Boston

Consecutive pitches:

•         In Texas he mixed up pitches more. For example after a CB he threw 48% FB in Texas but 57% in Boston – much more predictable.

Pitch selection:

•         In Texas he mixed in his change and slider more

•         In Boston he relied more on his FB

Pitch selection by inning:

•         In Texas he mixed up pitches in the 8th and 9th innings. In the 11th relied more on CB and less on change

•         In Boston the 8th inning was a predictable FB (62%). In the 9th inning the FB was still a predictable 50%.

Pitch velocities:

•         In Texas his pitches had nice “bell curves” making hitters guess not only what was coming, but at what speed.

•         In Boston his FB was not a “bell curve” showing inconsistencies. Interestingly he threw 95mph+ more in Boston but it was ineffective.

FB velocity:

•         In Texas his velocity was slower than in Boston (95mph vs 96.5mph)

•         In Texas his velocity increased from inning 8 to 9 (94.5mph to 95.2)

•         In Boston his velocity decreased from inning 8 to 9 (97.3mph to 95.7)

Pitch type and locations vs RHH:

•         In Texas he almost always kept pitches away from RHH

•         In Boston he pitched inside and over the inside half of the plate more.

Pitch type and locations vs LHH:

•         In Boston he pitched more FBs high, and inside vs LHH

Pitch type and locations of swinging strikes vs RHH:

•         Batters chased his Change more in Texas because it was effective down and away from RHH.

Pitch type and locations of swinging strikes vs LHH:

•         Not much to deduce – his FB were mostly up, and Change down for swinging strikes.

Pitch type and locations with RISP:

•         Stayed closer to the zone in Texas than in Boston.

This section shows HOW he got worse (not why)

Pitch count and opponents GPA:

•         In Texas dominated - .180 GPA or less all game and got better as game progressed.

•         In Boston, 0.252 to 0.475 GPA, got worse as pitches progressed.

Pitch count and K/BB: more pitches / game in Boston. Starts off dominant in Texas (2.8 K/BB first 10 pitches ) but no dominance in Boston (0 K/BB first 10 pitches). Settles down pitches 10-20 both teams.

When did he enter games?

What was the lead when he entered?

From here on, statistics just show that he got worse, not why

•         Boston: Save Value 12.3 (8 opps), got 2 saves, 3 blown saves, 3 Holds

•         Texas: Save Value 15.8 (16 opps), got 14 saves, 1 blown saves, 1 Hold)

•         Great at holding inherited runners with both BOS and with TEX, although only 3 situations with TEX and 2 with BOS.

•         Great at holding inherited runners with both BOS and with TEX, although only 3 situations with TEX and 2 with BOS

 

Ari Kaplan                                           Fred Claire

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312-399-0079                                      626-796-2749

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